ISP Working Paper | The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: Escalating Violence and Security Risks

New military escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh has again drawn attention to the situation in the Caucasus region. The Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict is not a new phenomenon in international politics. Many of its elements, such as the positions of the opposing sides themselves, as well as approaches of actors engaged in the peace settlement process, are well known. There has also been more than one escalation on the Karabakh contact line or along the interstate border between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The escalation in July 2020 is one of the most recent large-scale cases. This working paper analyzes the rationale and the international implications of the current events as well as the following questions: What is the novelty of the September situation? How dangerous is a new surge in the armed confrontation? Is there a great threat of internationalization of the conflict and what trajectories of its development are possible?

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ISP Working Paper | Sergey MARKEDONOV | The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict- Escalating Violence and Security Risks