ISP Working Paper | The Nagorno Karabakh Conflict and the Crisis in Turkey’s Domestic Politics

In Turkey, the AKP-MHP (The Justice and Development Party – The Nationalist Movement Party) nationalist coalition is no longer able to solve problems inside and outside the country in usual ways. The South Caucasus has been added to the mechanism of conflicts in Syria, Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean. In view of the scale of direct and indirect issues with Russia, this can also be depicted as a Syria-Libya-South Caucasus triangle. A worrying sign is the active involvement of Turkey in combat operations in Nagorno Karabakh. Turkey was always supporting Azerbaijan diplomatically in the context of the “One nation, two states” notion, and was one of the key suppliers of weapons together with Russia and Israel. However, this time Turkey’s role is unprecedented, as it includes the supply of modern Turkish “Bayraktar” drones, as well as sending F-16 fighter jets to Azerbaijan and active use of mercenaries from Syria alongside with regular Azerbaijani troops. This working paper analyzes the rationale and the role of Turkish domestic politics behind Turkish involvement as well as the risk of confrontation between Turkey and Russia.

 

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ISP Working Paper | Arif ASALIOGLU | The Nagorno Karabakh Conflict and the Crisis in Turkey’s Domestic Politics