ISP Working Paper | Syrian conflict: Complexities and Prospects Ahead

There is already nine years of the conflict in Syria left behind, and it is still far from its final settlement. Although the intensity and scale of military activities have significantly decreased, the overall situation in the country remains very unstable and is complicated by the whole set of factors: military, political, international, socio-economic. That […]

ISP Working Paper | Foreign Fighters in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War. Dimension and Complexity

The Second Karabakh War (September 27 – November 9, 2020) was the latest escalation of an unresolved conflict over the region, which is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but partially governed by the Republic of Artsakh, a breakaway state with an Armenian ethnic majority. As a result of the war, territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh including […]

ISP Working Paper | The Second Karabakh War, or the First Post-Post-Soviet War

The Second Karabakh War, sometimes called the six-week war, took the lives of thousands of Armenian and Azerbaijani soldiers, abruptly changed the status quo in the Karabakh conflict that had existed since the end of the First Karabakh War in 1994, and reformatted the geopolitical configuration of the South Caucasus. It is also likely to […]

ISP Working Paper | The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict from Iran’s Perspective

During the past two decades, the ceasefire in Karabakh had been breached several times by the Armenian and Azerbaijani parties. The most significant cases of violation of truce are the relatively comprehensive military encounter in the course of the four days war of April 2016, the four days war of July 2020 and the latest […]

ISP Working Paper | Great Power Conflicts and the Global Economy

The economic impact of COVID-19-pandemic is serious. Nearly every major power has suffered a massive drop in gross domestic product. Overnight, all economic vulnerabilities of the most powerful states in the world were exposed. The election of Donald Trump marked the beginning of the trend aimed at reassessing the economic vulnerability of one’s own state […]

ISP Working Paper | The Nagorno Karabakh Conflict and the Crisis in Turkey’s Domestic Politics

In Turkey, the AKP-MHP (The Justice and Development Party – The Nationalist Movement Party) nationalist coalition is no longer able to solve problems inside and outside the country in usual ways. The South Caucasus has been added to the mechanism of conflicts in Syria, Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean. In view of the scale of […]

ISP Working Paper | New War in Nagorno Karabakh and the Role of Great Powers: What is Next?

On September 27, 2020, Azerbaijan launched a large-scale attack along the whole line of contact with the Nagorno Karabakh Republic. This was the third flare-up in Karabakh conflict in recent four years. In April 2016 Azerbaijan again launched an attack on Karabakh, however, hostilities were stopped after four days as a result of active Russian […]

ISP Working Paper | Evaluating the OSCE Minsk Group’s Mediation of the Armenia–Azerbaijan Conflict

This working paper aims to analyze the mediation activity of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group through the prisms of theoretical approaches to international mediation. After providing a historical background to the mediation work of the Minsk Group Co-Chairs and highlighting the stages of the mediation, the article will further […]

ISP Working Paper | The Nagorno-Karabakh Tension

Such a severe aggravation of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh has not been observed since 1994 the time when the conflicting parties reached an agreement on a ceasefire. By September 27, 2020, the situation in the military-political plane has reached its peak. On the morning of September 27, in response to another shelling of Azerbaijani positions […]

ISP Working Paper | The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: Escalating Violence and Security Risks

New military escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh has again drawn attention to the situation in the Caucasus region. The Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict is not a new phenomenon in international politics. Many of its elements, such as the positions of the opposing sides themselves, as well as approaches of actors engaged in the peace settlement process, are well known. […]

ISP Working Paper | What to expect from another “milestone” election in Georgia

In less than a month, parliamentary elections will be held in Georgia. After the volatile events of the last summer (the so-called Gavrilov Crisis – mass protests following the visit of the Russian parliamentary delegation and the crack-down on the rally), it was widely believed that the ruling party was doomed for a defeat. Thus, […]

ISP Working Paper | Political Crisis in Belarus: Sources, Evolution, and International Implications

In recent years, Belarus seemed to be coming in from the cold internationally. After about two decades as a European outcast, Minsk started to emerge as an important regional security actor and as a place that had a lot more to offer than had been thought previously. In an attempt to normalise relations with the […]

ISP Working Paper | Political Crisis in Belarus: Reasons and Perspectives

On August 9, 2020, presidential elections were held in Belarus. According to official data voiced by the Central Election Commission, Aliaksandr Lukashenka, the incumbent president, won with a sweeping 80.1% majority. Ensuing protests became unprecedented in the history of independent Belarus in terms of both the number of people involved and violence used against protesters. […]

ISP Working Paper | The Kremlin and the Protests in Belarus: What’s Russia’s Next Move?

Massive and persistent, protests in the Republic of Belarus have taken the world by surprise and suddenly brought the country to the centre of Europe’s attention. A rigged presidential election and a violent crackdown on the opposition unleashed deep-rooted popular discontent, which had grown mostly undetected over President Alexander Lukashenko’s 26 uninterrupted years in office. […]

ISP Working Paper | Current Trends in the Political and Security Dimension of the South Caucasus. A View from Iran

The cultural, ethnic, religious, linguistic, and geographical cohesion of the Caucasus with Iran is an obvious factor that engages Tehran in the issues of this region. Therefore, the Islamic Republic of Iran was one of the first countries that recognized the newly independent states of the Caucasus after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Among […]