ISP Working Paper | Political Crisis in Belarus: Sources, Evolution, and International Implications

In recent years, Belarus seemed to be coming in from the cold internationally. After about two decades as a European outcast, Minsk started to emerge as an important regional security actor and as a place that had a lot more to offer than had been thought previously. In an attempt to normalise relations with the […]

ISP Working Paper | Political Crisis in Belarus: Reasons and Perspectives

On August 9, 2020, presidential elections were held in Belarus. According to official data voiced by the Central Election Commission, Aliaksandr Lukashenka, the incumbent president, won with a sweeping 80.1% majority. Ensuing protests became unprecedented in the history of independent Belarus in terms of both the number of people involved and violence used against protesters. […]

ISP Working Paper | The Kremlin and the Protests in Belarus: What’s Russia’s Next Move?

Massive and persistent, protests in the Republic of Belarus have taken the world by surprise and suddenly brought the country to the centre of Europe’s attention. A rigged presidential election and a violent crackdown on the opposition unleashed deep-rooted popular discontent, which had grown mostly undetected over President Alexander Lukashenko’s 26 uninterrupted years in office. […]

ISP Working Paper | Current Trends in the Political and Security Dimension of the South Caucasus. A View from Iran

The cultural, ethnic, religious, linguistic, and geographical cohesion of the Caucasus with Iran is an obvious factor that engages Tehran in the issues of this region. Therefore, the Islamic Republic of Iran was one of the first countries that recognized the newly independent states of the Caucasus after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Among […]

ISP Working Paper | The July Escalation Along Armenia-Azerbaijan Border

The July escalation along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border has caught many by surprise. The clashes took place some 300 km away from the line of contact between Azerbaijan and the Nagorno Karabakh Republic and were the first major escalation after the April 2018 “Velvet Revolution” in Armenia. The situation along both the line of contact and […]

ISP Working Paper | The July 2020 Clashes on the Armenia-Azerbaijan Border and Implications for the Old Conflict

The South Caucasus is not only one of the most multi-ethnic regions on Europe’s periphery but also, and probably because of this, one of the most conflict-inflicted territories in the world. Not only did the disintegration of the Soviet Union allow the three countries of the region – Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia – to recover […]

ISP Working Paper | A New Constitution for a New Russia?

Putin was nervous on March 10th, 2020 when presenting the main amendment about the reset of the terms count in the Duma, it was something unprecedented even for Russia and took by surprise even his supporters. It was something he had openly denied preparing to do in the past. It was clear that he was […]

ISP Working Paper | The COVID-19 Pandemic: Impact for the Post-Soviet Space and Russia’s Aspirations

The COVID-19 pandemic, which has become the largest global challenge of the current time, has had a significant impact on the post-Soviet countries. In order to understand the extent of its influence on socio-political and socio-economic processes in the CIS countries and in Georgia adequately it is necessary to estimate how the pandemic has changed […]

ISP Working Paper | Europe’s Role in the Corona and Post-Corona World

In order to understand how global political conflicts and social peace will look after the corona era, it is necessary to analyze how they are developing during the crisis itself. This working paper makes the argument that the existing tendencies will accelerate and endure after the crisis. The following four factors will be discussed here: […]

ISP Working Paper | The Future of the European Union in a Post-Pandemic World

In recent years the identity of the European Union has come to be inextricably linked with the logic of crisis. As opposed to other polities around the globe, the EU does not just face recurring crises but seems to exist in the very element of crisis. In a way, it welcomes crises. It has turned […]

ISP Working Paper | How COVID-19 Will Reinforce Trends Shaping the International Order

In just a few months, COVID-19 has turned our world upside down. The pandemic has claimed over 100,000 lives and untold economic damage. It is also affecting relations between states, in many cases, for the worse. These momentous events have led many to wonder what the pandemic means for the future of the international order. […]

ISP Working Paper | The Long March: Geopolitical Aspect of Transition to a New Global Order

In the past century, world order changes reflected the results of two world wars and the Cold War. The latter ushered in a period of Pax Americana – an unprecedented short era of one country’s – the United States of America’s – global dominance. This period featured a surge in globalization – a process of […]

ISP Working Paper | The Global Order After COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic is the most disruptive global event since the Great Depression and World War 2. At least 4.8 million people have been infected in less than six months; more than 300,000 have died, and many more deaths will occur even if effective vaccines or treatments are eventually developed. The economic costs are staggering: […]

ISP Working Paper | Indien im Spannungsfeld von (Neo)Realismus, Interdependenz und Chinas Belt and Road Initiative

Mit der Rückkehr der Volksrepublik China als eurasischer Macht auf die weltpolitische Bühne nach 100 Jahren der Depression und einer damit einhergehenden offensichtlichen Verlagerung des globalen geopolitischen Fokus vom atlantischen in den indopazifischen Raum, werden die Karten im Spiel um die globale machtpolitische Führung neu gemischt. Die durchaus stabile bipolare Ordnung des 20. Jahrhunderts ist […]

ISP Working Paper | Bulgaria – Outlook on Security Policy Development and National Expectations until 2025

“Always with Germany, never against Russia.” These words attributed to Tsar Boris III reflect the prevailing attitude in Bulgaria when it comes to foreign affairs.  Of course, these days it is the West, the EU and the US, rather Germany.  But the dictum has not lost its relevance. Bulgaria has been part of the Western […]