Russian Current Economic Situation and Outlook

In the second quarter of 2019, economic growth picked up to 0.9% year-on-year from 0.5% in the first quarter. This was to a large extent due to the basis effect: the second quarter of 2018 saw a moderation of government spending after the presidential elections held in April. Still, GDP growth in the first half […]

Russia’s relations with Iran and Turkey in the Syrian context in 2020

Since Russia has deployed its military to Syria back in September 2015 it became a party to the conflict together with other actors involved. Its military support to the Syrian government helped to change the tide of war. With Moscow’s help Syrian state, its institutions, and, most importantly, army did not entirely collapse, while ISIS […]

What Is Behind Trump’s Decision to Allow Turkey to Attack the Kurds?

On October 9, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the beginning of a new military operation in Syria. “The Turkish Armed Forces, together with the Syrian National Army, just launched Operation Peace Spring against PKK/YPG and Daesh terrorists in northern Syria. Our mission is to prevent the creation of a terror corridor across our southern […]

Nord Stream 2 ante portas?

Kein energetisches Infrastrukturprojekt war in Europa derart umstritten, wie die zweite Ostseepipeline Nord Stream 2. Seit 2011 existiert bereits die erste Ostseepipeline Nord Stream I, die jährlich 55 Milliarden Kubikmeter Erdgas aus Westsibirien nach Deutschland transportieren kann. Nord Stream 2 soll künftig die gleiche Menge für Kunden in der Europäischen Union bereitstellen. Bislang wurden 150 […]

What is behind positive outcomes of the troika meeting in Ankara?

On September 16, Ankara hosted fifth trilateral summit on Syria between Russia, Iran and Turkey. Although the three leaders – Putin, Erdogan and Rouhani – praised summit’s results and declared unity of their goals and actions in Syria, the reality looks quite different. The most awaited and sensitive topics of the summit were expectedly formation […]

Die Zukunft des russischen plebiszitären Regimes

Aus dem Russischen von Alexander Dubowy   Seit den Präsidentschaftswahlen 2018 wurde die russische Politik durch mehrere Ereignisse entscheidend geprägt. Diese markieren den Beginn einer stürmischen Phase des politischen Systems Russlands. Insbesondere unter den jüngeren Generationen wächst die Bereitschaft zur politischen Partizipation und der Wunsch nach einer ernsthaften und offenen Diskussion über die politischen Perspektiven […]

Russia and the Western Balkans: A Last Stand or More of the Same?

As European leaders make it increasingly clear that rapid EU membership for the Western Balkans is out of the question, there is speculation that other global powers may also reconsider their strategies in the region. Due to its longstanding ties with the Balkans and vast experience in meddling, Russia sparks particular fear in the West. […]

Is Astana format on the way to be reformatted?

Another round of Astana Syria talks was held at the beginning of August in Kazakh capital Nur-Sultan. This format built around Russia, Turkey and Iran was launched back in January 2017 at the initiative of the Russian president Vladimir Putin. It had several main goals: First and foremost was to bring armed opposition and the […]

Das Ende der Innenpolitik und der Beginn einer langwierigen politischen Krise des Kreml

Aus dem Russischen von Alexander Dubowy   Im Jahr 2018 trat das politische System Russlands in eine neue Phase seiner Entwicklung ein. Zum ersten Mal in seiner jüngsten Geschichte brachen die Unterstützungswerte für den Präsidenten und die Partei der Macht „Einheitlicher Russland“ innerhalb von drei Monaten, zwischen Juni und August 2018, deutlich ein. Bereits im […]

Russia as a Security Provider in the Middle East: Understanding the Limits and Opportunities

Since the start of the Russian military operation in Syria in 2015, the configuration of political forces in the Middle East began to undergo major changes. The dominance of the United States as a key security provider in the region, which was the issue since 1990s and accelerated with the invasion of Iraq in 2003, […]

Getting Deterrence Right on NATO’s Eastern Flank

Poland won’t exactly be getting the “Fort Trump” it wanted. But NATO’s robust force posture in the East, like Russia’s, still risks being misinterpreted.  On June 12, the Polish government finally secured its long-sought after joint declaration with Washington on enhancing the US military presence in Poland. As part of the intensive lobbying process leading […]

Russia Is Ours

Anton Shekhovtsov, Expert, European Platform for Democratic Elections; Associate Research Fellow, Institute for Euro-Atlantic Cooperation (Ukraine)   In his manifesto published in the beginning of March 2019, French President Emmanuel Macron called for a renewal of the project of a united Europe based on the ideas of freedom, protection of the continent, and progress.[1] Speaking […]

Belarus Muddling through Geopolitical Uncertainties

In two recent years leading Western media and think tanks have written about Belarus, perhaps, more than they did in the previous two decades. Most reports focus on Russian policies towards neighbours, and Belarus in particular (or what journalists and analysts presume those policies are), and Minsk’s actions in that context. Thus, in a way, […]

Die Lage in Osteuropa und der Schwarzmeerregion im Jahr 2019

Russland steht 2019 ganz im Zeichen des schrittweisen Transformationsprozesses des gesamten politischen Systems. Angesichts der Präsidentschafts- und Parlamentswahlen in der Ukraine werden die Versuche einer friedlichen Lösung des Konfliktes im Osten der Ukraine über das Jahr 2019 hinaus fortgesetzt werden, auch eine Konfliktintensivierung kann nicht ausgeschlossen werden. Eine nicht unbedeutende additive konflikteskalierende Rolle in der […]

Entwicklungsperspektiven der russischen Wirtschaft im Jahr 2019

Aus dem Russischen von Alexander Dubowy   Im März 2018 wurde Vladimir Putin zum vierten Mal zum Präsidenten der Russischen Föderation gewählt. Er trat das Amt am 7. Mai 2018 an und unterzeichnete beinahe sofort die sogenannten Mai-Dekrete. Im Wesentlichen geben die Mai-Dekrete die Hauptstoßrichtung wirtschaftspolitischer Entwicklung der Russischen Föderation bis 2024 vor. Die Dekrettitel […]