ISP Working Paper | The Kremlin and the Protests in Belarus: What’s Russia’s Next Move?

Massive and persistent, protests in the Republic of Belarus have taken the world by surprise and suddenly brought the country to the centre of Europe’s attention. A rigged presidential election and a violent crackdown on the opposition unleashed deep-rooted popular discontent, which had grown mostly undetected over President Alexander Lukashenko’s 26 uninterrupted years in office. […]

How American “Caesar Act” Will Affect the Situation in Syria and Moscow’s Policy

The parliamentary elections held in late July 2020 in Syria coincided with the expansion of the US Department of Treasury’s restrictive measures against the government of Bashar al-Assad. The settlement of the conflict itself is experiencing difficulties, and the economic situation in the country is only getting worse. Besides the destruction during the war, among […]

ISP Working Paper | A New Constitution for a New Russia?

Putin was nervous on March 10th, 2020 when presenting the main amendment about the reset of the terms count in the Duma, it was something unprecedented even for Russia and took by surprise even his supporters. It was something he had openly denied preparing to do in the past. It was clear that he was […]

ISP Working Paper | The COVID-19 Pandemic: Impact for the Post-Soviet Space and Russia’s Aspirations

The COVID-19 pandemic, which has become the largest global challenge of the current time, has had a significant impact on the post-Soviet countries. In order to understand the extent of its influence on socio-political and socio-economic processes in the CIS countries and in Georgia adequately it is necessary to estimate how the pandemic has changed […]

ISP Working Paper | The Long March: Geopolitical Aspect of Transition to a New Global Order

In the past century, world order changes reflected the results of two world wars and the Cold War. The latter ushered in a period of Pax Americana – an unprecedented short era of one country’s – the United States of America’s – global dominance. This period featured a surge in globalization – a process of […]

The Future of EU-Russia Relations

One of the fundamental questions of our times is why European Union (EU) – Russian relations have deteriorated so badly and, as a corollary of that, can relations be improved, and if so, how. These issues will shape the future of our continent, and therefore require serious and balanced analysis. Unfortunately, too often answers are […]

COVID-19 Forecast for the Post-Soviet Space

Data Source: https://github.com/datasets/covid-19 The forecast methodology is developed by the author. Any real-life exponential growth can be described by a logistic curve. The developed method is based on the time series. Based on the growth trajectory, it calculates the logistic growth rate or the steepness of the curve, which in other equal conditions does not […]

Deciphering another Russia-Turkey deal on Idlib

On March 5 presidents of Russia and Turkey met in Moscow where they managed to reach a new deal on Syrian Idlib. Situation in the province has been escalating for weeks and put into question Russia-Turkey cooperation on Syria. Although, after almost six-hours long negotiations Vladimir Putin and Tayyip Erdogan came to a compromise, the […]

EU-Russian Relations in 2020

There are few reason to expect EU-Russian relations to change dramatically in 2020. The reciprocal bitter views are entrenched on both sides and constitute the new normality. The EU’s occasional statements that no return to the ‘business as usual’ is possible until Russia changes its policies (in particular, in Ukraine) are countered by Russian representatives’ […]

The Transition Generation. Who Will Rule Russia after 2024?

At the turn of the millennium, there was the so-called “Year 2000 problem”. It was expected that computers would “go crazy” and that this would lead to a global economic and transport collapse. However, on 1 January 2000, it turned out that the world had remained the same. The “Year 2024 problem” is quite similar […]

Understanding a New Era in Russia-China Relations

Since mid–late 1990s for several decades Russia-China relations were largely seen in the West as either a tactical move by Moscow and Beijing in the hope of strengthening their positions in dialogue with the US or as an “axis of convenience”, lacking solid basis, especially in economic dimension. Western experts usually assert that sooner or […]

Russia’s position on the US-Iran confrontation. Watching from the sidelines

The escalation of tensions between Iran and the USA in January 2020 has once again raised the question of what positions will the influential actors take. Meanwhile, the international community perceives the US-Iran confrontation within the context of two key topics – the state of the “nuclear deal” and the regional policies of these states […]

Escalation in Idlib Highlights Existing Risks in Russia-Turkish Cooperation in Syria

Recent developments in Idlib put situation in Syria on escalatory trajectory which might potentially undermine Russia-Turkish relations and change entire conflict flow. While Erdogan threatens to launch a military operation against Syrian Arab Army (SAA) if it doesn’t stop offensive in Idlib, Russian and Turkish diplomats and military are struggling to find a new compromise […]

Post-Soviet Space 2020: Key Trends and Challenges

Due to the shifts within the global environment, including the come-back of the Middle East to the top agenda of great power politics alongside emergent controversies between major international players, the post-soviet space is down-grading in the hierarchy of political interests of non-regional players. As the global attention is mainly focused on other regions, the […]

Ukraine-2020: Little Can Be Said For Sure

The views expressed in the article are solely that of the author and may not represent that of MGIMO-University, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Russian government.   There are numerous uncertainties for the coming year. Will the local elections be held on time? Will the Minsk agreements still be relevant? Will the resolution […]