ISP Working Paper | The Long March: Geopolitical Aspect of Transition to a New Global Order

In the past century, world order changes reflected the results of two world wars and the Cold War. The latter ushered in a period of Pax Americana – an unprecedented short era of one country’s – the United States of America’s – global dominance. This period featured a surge in globalization – a process of […]

The Future of EU-Russia Relations

One of the fundamental questions of our times is why European Union (EU) – Russian relations have deteriorated so badly and, as a corollary of that, can relations be improved, and if so, how. These issues will shape the future of our continent, and therefore require serious and balanced analysis. Unfortunately, too often answers are […]

COVID-19 Forecast for the Post-Soviet Space

Data Source: https://github.com/datasets/covid-19 The forecast methodology is developed by the author. Any real-life exponential growth can be described by a logistic curve. The developed method is based on the time series. Based on the growth trajectory, it calculates the logistic growth rate or the steepness of the curve, which in other equal conditions does not […]

Deciphering another Russia-Turkey deal on Idlib

On March 5 presidents of Russia and Turkey met in Moscow where they managed to reach a new deal on Syrian Idlib. Situation in the province has been escalating for weeks and put into question Russia-Turkey cooperation on Syria. Although, after almost six-hours long negotiations Vladimir Putin and Tayyip Erdogan came to a compromise, the […]

EU-Russian Relations in 2020

There are few reason to expect EU-Russian relations to change dramatically in 2020. The reciprocal bitter views are entrenched on both sides and constitute the new normality. The EU’s occasional statements that no return to the ‘business as usual’ is possible until Russia changes its policies (in particular, in Ukraine) are countered by Russian representatives’ […]

The Transition Generation. Who Will Rule Russia after 2024?

At the turn of the millennium, there was the so-called “Year 2000 problem”. It was expected that computers would “go crazy” and that this would lead to a global economic and transport collapse. However, on 1 January 2000, it turned out that the world had remained the same. The “Year 2024 problem” is quite similar […]

Understanding a New Era in Russia-China Relations

Since mid–late 1990s for several decades Russia-China relations were largely seen in the West as either a tactical move by Moscow and Beijing in the hope of strengthening their positions in dialogue with the US or as an “axis of convenience”, lacking solid basis, especially in economic dimension. Western experts usually assert that sooner or […]

Russia’s position on the US-Iran confrontation. Watching from the sidelines

The escalation of tensions between Iran and the USA in January 2020 has once again raised the question of what positions will the influential actors take. Meanwhile, the international community perceives the US-Iran confrontation within the context of two key topics – the state of the “nuclear deal” and the regional policies of these states […]

Escalation in Idlib Highlights Existing Risks in Russia-Turkish Cooperation in Syria

Recent developments in Idlib put situation in Syria on escalatory trajectory which might potentially undermine Russia-Turkish relations and change entire conflict flow. While Erdogan threatens to launch a military operation against Syrian Arab Army (SAA) if it doesn’t stop offensive in Idlib, Russian and Turkish diplomats and military are struggling to find a new compromise […]

Post-Soviet Space 2020: Key Trends and Challenges

Due to the shifts within the global environment, including the come-back of the Middle East to the top agenda of great power politics alongside emergent controversies between major international players, the post-soviet space is down-grading in the hierarchy of political interests of non-regional players. As the global attention is mainly focused on other regions, the […]

Ukraine-2020: Little Can Be Said For Sure

The views expressed in the article are solely that of the author and may not represent that of MGIMO-University, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Russian government.   There are numerous uncertainties for the coming year. Will the local elections be held on time? Will the Minsk agreements still be relevant? Will the resolution […]

Die Beziehungen Russlands zur EU 2020

Im Verhältnis EU-Russland wird die gegenwärtige Beziehungsdynamik sowie die 2014 eingeleitete strategische Entkoppelung‘ beibehalten. Im Sinne eines dynamischen Status quo wird die EU-Russland Beziehung einen hybriden, kooperativ-konfrontativen Charakter annehmen und zwischen pragmatischer Kooperation und hybrider Konfrontation oszillieren. In Russland stehen das Jahr 2020 innenpolitisch ganz im Zeichen tiefgreifender Transformation des politischen Systems, inklusive der Fortführung […]

Chinas Belt and Road Initiative – Europas geopolitische Herausforderung des 21. Jahrhunderts

„Wir wollen die Seidenstraßeninitiative vorantreiben, so dass die Menschen auf der ganzen Welt davon profitieren […]. Wir wollen eine Straße des Friedens schaffen.“ So die Botschaft von Chinas Präsidenten Xi Jinping in seiner Eröffnungsrede anlässlich des „One Belt, One Road Gipfels“ am 14. Mai 2017 in Peking an anwesenden Vertreter aus 110 Ländern, darunter 28 […]

Russia and Georgia: Seeking a New Agenda

The Soviet Union’s dissolution fundamentally altered the geopolitics of the South Caucasus, by turning the former constituent republics of the USSR into independent states and hence, also autonomous regional and international actors, bent on defining their own specific national interests and foreign policy priorities. The emergence of these new republics also changed the nature of […]

Russian Current Economic Situation and Outlook

In the second quarter of 2019, economic growth picked up to 0.9% year-on-year from 0.5% in the first quarter. This was to a large extent due to the basis effect: the second quarter of 2018 saw a moderation of government spending after the presidential elections held in April. Still, GDP growth in the first half […]