ISP Working Paper | The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict from Iran’s Perspective

During the past two decades, the ceasefire in Karabakh had been breached several times by the Armenian and Azerbaijani parties. The most significant cases of violation of truce are the relatively comprehensive military encounter in the course of the four days war of April 2016, the four days war of July 2020 and the latest […]

ISP Working Paper | New War in Nagorno Karabakh and the Role of Great Powers: What is Next?

On September 27, 2020, Azerbaijan launched a large-scale attack along the whole line of contact with the Nagorno Karabakh Republic. This was the third flare-up in Karabakh conflict in recent four years. In April 2016 Azerbaijan again launched an attack on Karabakh, however, hostilities were stopped after four days as a result of active Russian […]

ISP Working Paper | The Nagorno-Karabakh Tension

Such a severe aggravation of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh has not been observed since 1994 the time when the conflicting parties reached an agreement on a ceasefire. By September 27, 2020, the situation in the military-political plane has reached its peak. On the morning of September 27, in response to another shelling of Azerbaijani positions […]

ISP Working Paper | The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: Escalating Violence and Security Risks

New military escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh has again drawn attention to the situation in the Caucasus region. The Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict is not a new phenomenon in international politics. Many of its elements, such as the positions of the opposing sides themselves, as well as approaches of actors engaged in the peace settlement process, are well known. […]

ISP Working Paper | Current Trends in the Political and Security Dimension of the South Caucasus. A View from Iran

The cultural, ethnic, religious, linguistic, and geographical cohesion of the Caucasus with Iran is an obvious factor that engages Tehran in the issues of this region. Therefore, the Islamic Republic of Iran was one of the first countries that recognized the newly independent states of the Caucasus after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Among […]

ISP Working Paper | The July Escalation Along Armenia-Azerbaijan Border

The July escalation along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border has caught many by surprise. The clashes took place some 300 km away from the line of contact between Azerbaijan and the Nagorno Karabakh Republic and were the first major escalation after the April 2018 “Velvet Revolution” in Armenia. The situation along both the line of contact and […]

ISP Working Paper | The July 2020 Clashes on the Armenia-Azerbaijan Border and Implications for the Old Conflict

The South Caucasus is not only one of the most multi-ethnic regions on Europe’s periphery but also, and probably because of this, one of the most conflict-inflicted territories in the world. Not only did the disintegration of the Soviet Union allow the three countries of the region – Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia – to recover […]

ISP Working Paper | A New Constitution for a New Russia?

Putin was nervous on March 10th, 2020 when presenting the main amendment about the reset of the terms count in the Duma, it was something unprecedented even for Russia and took by surprise even his supporters. It was something he had openly denied preparing to do in the past. It was clear that he was […]

ISP Working Paper | The COVID-19 Pandemic: Impact for the Post-Soviet Space and Russia’s Aspirations

The COVID-19 pandemic, which has become the largest global challenge of the current time, has had a significant impact on the post-Soviet countries. In order to understand the extent of its influence on socio-political and socio-economic processes in the CIS countries and in Georgia adequately it is necessary to estimate how the pandemic has changed […]

COVID-19 Forecast for the Post-Soviet Space

Data Source: https://github.com/datasets/covid-19 The forecast methodology is developed by the author. Any real-life exponential growth can be described by a logistic curve. The developed method is based on the time series. Based on the growth trajectory, it calculates the logistic growth rate or the steepness of the curve, which in other equal conditions does not […]

Presidential Elections in Abkhazia: A Competition Beyond the Rule of Law

On 22 March extraordinary presidential elections will be held in Abkhazia, a de facto state recognized by Russia. The main candidates hardly argue about the support from Russia, but the campaign in two rounds will nevertheless be tough. Abkhazian politics is characterized by a very low level of state capacity and by being run by […]

The Transition Generation. Who Will Rule Russia after 2024?

At the turn of the millennium, there was the so-called “Year 2000 problem”. It was expected that computers would “go crazy” and that this would lead to a global economic and transport collapse. However, on 1 January 2000, it turned out that the world had remained the same. The “Year 2024 problem” is quite similar […]

Guter Selenskyj, schlechte Regierung?

Der ukrainische Präsident Wolodymyr Selenskyj bleibt auch 2020 durchaus beliebt. Die Regierung und das Parlament werden dagegen von den Ukrainern gehasst. Ein Alarmzeichen für Selenskyj, der allerdings wenig Konkurrenz aus dem nationalorientierten Lager zu befürchten hat. Er hat größere Probleme: den Machtkampf innerhalb seiner Partei und die Unlösbarkeit des Donbass-Krieges. Die Überraschungen sind in der […]

Post-Soviet Space 2020: Key Trends and Challenges

Due to the shifts within the global environment, including the come-back of the Middle East to the top agenda of great power politics alongside emergent controversies between major international players, the post-soviet space is down-grading in the hierarchy of political interests of non-regional players. As the global attention is mainly focused on other regions, the […]

Ukraine-2020: Little Can Be Said For Sure

The views expressed in the article are solely that of the author and may not represent that of MGIMO-University, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Russian government.   There are numerous uncertainties for the coming year. Will the local elections be held on time? Will the Minsk agreements still be relevant? Will the resolution […]