COVID-19 and the Future Global Order

How will the corona virus pandemic change the global order that developed under American leadership after 1945? There will be changes, but one must be wary of assuming that “big causes” always have big effects. For example in 1918, Spanish flu killed more people than did World War I, yet the lasting global effects on […]

The EU and the Eurasian Economic Union: Dealing with a Common Chinese Challenge

In 2015 the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) became the latest version of integration in the post-soviet space, bringing together Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan in a Union, taking the European Union as its model. However, five years later the EAEU is still suffering from a number of structural weaknesses, which have restrained the organisation […]

The Future of EU-Russia Relations

One of the fundamental questions of our times is why European Union (EU) – Russian relations have deteriorated so badly and, as a corollary of that, can relations be improved, and if so, how. These issues will shape the future of our continent, and therefore require serious and balanced analysis. Unfortunately, too often answers are […]

COVID-19 Forecast for the Post-Soviet Space

Data Source: https://github.com/datasets/covid-19 The forecast methodology is developed by the author. Any real-life exponential growth can be described by a logistic curve. The developed method is based on the time series. Based on the growth trajectory, it calculates the logistic growth rate or the steepness of the curve, which in other equal conditions does not […]

ISP Working Paper | Bulgaria – Outlook on Security Policy Development and National Expectations until 2025

“Always with Germany, never against Russia.” These words attributed to Tsar Boris III reflect the prevailing attitude in Bulgaria when it comes to foreign affairs.  Of course, these days it is the West, the EU and the US, rather Germany.  But the dictum has not lost its relevance. Bulgaria has been part of the Western […]

ISP Working Paper | Romania – Outlook on Security Policy Development and National Expectations until 2025

Romania is contemplating the evolution of the system of International Relations and global security from the point of view of a new European state, willing to protect the liberal democratic system, multilateralism in the international stage, and the rules-based world. On another point, Romania is supportive of the need to build at our direct Eastern […]

ISP Working Paper | Money Laundering in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Despite some moderate improvements in recent years, money laundering remains a major problem in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). Rampant corruption; almost constant political crisis; blocked decision-making process; complicated administrative structure; weak rule of law; and widespread use of cash make BiH fertile ground for a variety of money laundering practices. Being a microcosm of Balkan’s […]

ISP Working Paper | Serbia, Quo Vadis? Belgrade between EU Accession and Aligment with Russia

In October 2019, six countries of the Western Balkans were shocked to learn that French President Emmanuel Macron had vetoed the start of negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia on accession to the European Union (EU). Even before that, both Western Balkan societies and their ruling elites were under no illusion that EU membership was […]

Deciphering another Russia-Turkey deal on Idlib

On March 5 presidents of Russia and Turkey met in Moscow where they managed to reach a new deal on Syrian Idlib. Situation in the province has been escalating for weeks and put into question Russia-Turkey cooperation on Syria. Although, after almost six-hours long negotiations Vladimir Putin and Tayyip Erdogan came to a compromise, the […]

Presidential Elections in Abkhazia: A Competition Beyond the Rule of Law

On 22 March extraordinary presidential elections will be held in Abkhazia, a de facto state recognized by Russia. The main candidates hardly argue about the support from Russia, but the campaign in two rounds will nevertheless be tough. Abkhazian politics is characterized by a very low level of state capacity and by being run by […]

EU-Russian Relations in 2020

There are few reason to expect EU-Russian relations to change dramatically in 2020. The reciprocal bitter views are entrenched on both sides and constitute the new normality. The EU’s occasional statements that no return to the ‘business as usual’ is possible until Russia changes its policies (in particular, in Ukraine) are countered by Russian representatives’ […]

The Transition Generation. Who Will Rule Russia after 2024?

At the turn of the millennium, there was the so-called “Year 2000 problem”. It was expected that computers would “go crazy” and that this would lead to a global economic and transport collapse. However, on 1 January 2000, it turned out that the world had remained the same. The “Year 2024 problem” is quite similar […]

Understanding a New Era in Russia-China Relations

Since mid–late 1990s for several decades Russia-China relations were largely seen in the West as either a tactical move by Moscow and Beijing in the hope of strengthening their positions in dialogue with the US or as an “axis of convenience”, lacking solid basis, especially in economic dimension. Western experts usually assert that sooner or […]

Russia’s position on the US-Iran confrontation. Watching from the sidelines

The escalation of tensions between Iran and the USA in January 2020 has once again raised the question of what positions will the influential actors take. Meanwhile, the international community perceives the US-Iran confrontation within the context of two key topics – the state of the “nuclear deal” and the regional policies of these states […]

Escalation in Idlib Highlights Existing Risks in Russia-Turkish Cooperation in Syria

Recent developments in Idlib put situation in Syria on escalatory trajectory which might potentially undermine Russia-Turkish relations and change entire conflict flow. While Erdogan threatens to launch a military operation against Syrian Arab Army (SAA) if it doesn’t stop offensive in Idlib, Russian and Turkish diplomats and military are struggling to find a new compromise […]