Russia as a Security Provider in the Middle East: Understanding the Limits and Opportunities

Since the start of the Russian military operation in Syria in 2015, the configuration of political forces in the Middle East began to undergo major changes. The dominance of the United States as a key security provider in the region, which was the issue since 1990s and accelerated with the invasion of Iraq in 2003, […]

Getting Deterrence Right on NATO’s Eastern Flank

Poland won’t exactly be getting the “Fort Trump” it wanted. But NATO’s robust force posture in the East, like Russia’s, still risks being misinterpreted.  On June 12, the Polish government finally secured its long-sought after joint declaration with Washington on enhancing the US military presence in Poland. As part of the intensive lobbying process leading […]

Russia Is Ours

Anton Shekhovtsov, Expert, European Platform for Democratic Elections; Associate Research Fellow, Institute for Euro-Atlantic Cooperation (Ukraine)   In his manifesto published in the beginning of March 2019, French President Emmanuel Macron called for a renewal of the project of a united Europe based on the ideas of freedom, protection of the continent, and progress.[1] Speaking […]

Five years Eurasian Economic Union: challenges, accomplishments and prospects

The views expressed in the article are solely that of the author and may not represent that of the Higher School of Economics and IIASA.   In 2019 the EAEU is officially celebrating its five-year anniversary. The aim of the following four articles is to look into the following questions: What have been the achievements […]

Geopolitical honeymoon in Moldova’s foreign policy: how sustainable is it?

The Moldovan ruling parties have never build such a united foreign policy as after ousting the oligarchic regime in June 2019. After the Moscow-backed failed Kozak Memorandum in 2003, the political class was avidly exploiting the geopolitical binary orientation. In return, the elites searched for material benefits, and moral and political legitimization at home – […]

Belarus Muddling through Geopolitical Uncertainties

In two recent years leading Western media and think tanks have written about Belarus, perhaps, more than they did in the previous two decades. Most reports focus on Russian policies towards neighbours, and Belarus in particular (or what journalists and analysts presume those policies are), and Minsk’s actions in that context. Thus, in a way, […]

The Gavrilov Crisis

Just about a week ago Georgia looked like just another post-Soviet country with its democracy in decline as its ruling party had all branches of power and most of the media sources under tight control. The economy almost stagnated with only tourism industry showing signs of growth, mostly at the expense of the Russian tourists. […]

Ukraine between Elections

Outcome of presidential elections in Ukraine came as a huge surprise. Comedian Volodymyr Zelenskyy scored 73% of votes, winning by almost 50% margin against incumbent Petro Poroshenko. Along with lack of experience, a new president will have to deal with peculiarities of Ukrainian political system, which places most of power into the hands of the […]

Georgia at a Glance

Georgia, a country once hailed as the regional champion of reforms, now looks rather like a just another post-Soviet republic. At the same time Georgia’s foreign policy has become more mature and balanced, taking into account recent shifts in balance of power, first of all the resurgent Russia. Domestic politics – business as usual In […]

Neutrality as a Model for the New Eastern Europe?

Under some circumstances, the concept of neutrality could serve as a model for Central and Eastern European states. During the Cold War, neutral states managed to stay out of the spheres of influence created by the two military superpowers. There have been suggestions to create a “neutral belt” in the new Eastern Europe that has […]

Politische Krise in der Republik Moldova

Seit dem Pfingstwochenende befindet sich die Republik Moldova in der Staatskrise. Trotz intensiver Bemühungen konnte auch drei Monate nach den Parlamentswahlen keine stabile Regierungskoalition gefunden werden. Nunmehr drohen Straßenproteste, auch eine massive Eskalation ist nicht auszuschließen. Die über Wochen andauernden Koalitionsgespräche zwischen dem Wahlsieger, der als pro-russisch geltenden, Partei der Sozialisten und der drittplatzierten, sich […]

Future Security Forum 2019

Am 29. April 2019 fand in Washington DC zum fünften Mal das Future Security Forum 2019 (vormals Future of War Conference) statt. Die Tagung wurde von der als Demokraten-nahe geltenden New America (vormals New America Foundation) und einer der größten staatlichen Universitäten der USA, Arizona State University, organisiert. In erster Linie nahmen an der Tagung […]

The South Caucasus and the phenomenon of frozen conflicts

The South Caucasus breaks down into three triangles, one inside the other. The largest, outer triangle includes three regional powers – Turkey, Iran and Russia. The middle triangle includes the three countries of the South Caucasus – Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia. The smallest, inner triangle consists of three unrecognized or partly recognized entities or de-facto […]

Frozen conflicts and de facto states in post-Soviet space

The breakup of the Soviet Union did not follow the borders formed during the Soviet period in all cases. In the 1990ies a number of newly independent states, including Russian Federation, have faced severe challenges in the form of separatist movements and even ethno-political conflicts; as a result “de facto entities emerged that have received […]

Die Lage in Osteuropa und der Schwarzmeerregion im Jahr 2019

Russland steht 2019 ganz im Zeichen des schrittweisen Transformationsprozesses des gesamten politischen Systems. Angesichts der Präsidentschafts- und Parlamentswahlen in der Ukraine werden die Versuche einer friedlichen Lösung des Konfliktes im Osten der Ukraine über das Jahr 2019 hinaus fortgesetzt werden, auch eine Konfliktintensivierung kann nicht ausgeschlossen werden. Eine nicht unbedeutende additive konflikteskalierende Rolle in der […]