ISP Working Paper | The COVID-19 Pandemic: Impact for the Post-Soviet Space and Russia’s Aspirations

The COVID-19 pandemic, which has become the largest global challenge of the current time, has had a significant impact on the post-Soviet countries. In order to understand the extent of its influence on socio-political and socio-economic processes in the CIS countries and in Georgia adequately it is necessary to estimate how the pandemic has changed […]

COVID-19 Forecast for the Post-Soviet Space

Data Source: https://github.com/datasets/covid-19 The forecast methodology is developed by the author. Any real-life exponential growth can be described by a logistic curve. The developed method is based on the time series. Based on the growth trajectory, it calculates the logistic growth rate or the steepness of the curve, which in other equal conditions does not […]

Geopolitical honeymoon in Moldova’s foreign policy: how sustainable is it?

The Moldovan ruling parties have never build such a united foreign policy as after ousting the oligarchic regime in June 2019. After the Moscow-backed failed Kozak Memorandum in 2003, the political class was avidly exploiting the geopolitical binary orientation. In return, the elites searched for material benefits, and moral and political legitimization at home – […]

Neutrality as a Model for the New Eastern Europe?

Under some circumstances, the concept of neutrality could serve as a model for Central and Eastern European states. During the Cold War, neutral states managed to stay out of the spheres of influence created by the two military superpowers. There have been suggestions to create a “neutral belt” in the new Eastern Europe that has […]

Politische Krise in der Republik Moldova

Seit dem Pfingstwochenende befindet sich die Republik Moldova in der Staatskrise. Trotz intensiver Bemühungen konnte auch drei Monate nach den Parlamentswahlen keine stabile Regierungskoalition gefunden werden. Nunmehr drohen Straßenproteste, auch eine massive Eskalation ist nicht auszuschließen. Die über Wochen andauernden Koalitionsgespräche zwischen dem Wahlsieger, der als pro-russisch geltenden, Partei der Sozialisten und der drittplatzierten, sich […]

Die Lage in Osteuropa und der Schwarzmeerregion im Jahr 2019

Russland steht 2019 ganz im Zeichen des schrittweisen Transformationsprozesses des gesamten politischen Systems. Angesichts der Präsidentschafts- und Parlamentswahlen in der Ukraine werden die Versuche einer friedlichen Lösung des Konfliktes im Osten der Ukraine über das Jahr 2019 hinaus fortgesetzt werden, auch eine Konfliktintensivierung kann nicht ausgeschlossen werden. Eine nicht unbedeutende additive konflikteskalierende Rolle in der […]