Data Source: https://github.com/datasets/covid-19 The forecast methodology is developed by the author. Any real-life exponential growth can be described by a logistic curve. The developed method is based on the time series. Based on the growth trajectory, it calculates the logistic growth rate or the steepness of the curve, which in other equal conditions does not […]
Georgia has sought ways to ensure its security and restore territorial integrity since early 90-ies. Integration with NATO has been viewed as one of the available ways to achieve this goal. There are other ways and options discussed like a bilateral military agreement with the US as the latter is seen as the only power […]
For most of the history of independent Georgia, the view towards Washington has looked more or less the same. The US has been a strong supporter of Georgia and has been one of the most countries most interested in bringing Georgia into Euro-Atlantic organizations, or to phrase it another way, into the US sphere of […]
Neutrality has been declared obsolete many times in its long and layered history. Yet a close companion to wars and conflicts throughout documented human history, and an inherently flexible concept, it has also made many comebacks in varying forms and contexts. Neutral states respond to critical moments in their environment by pursuing reversible, rather than […]
Over the past decades, Georgia has often been perceived as a success story. In many ways, this is true: Georgia has made impressive progress in implementing institutional reforms. In 2019, Georgia ranked 7th in the world, according to Ease of Doing Business and 16th in the Index of Economic Freedom. Institutional development is key to […]
The Soviet Union’s dissolution fundamentally altered the geopolitics of the South Caucasus, by turning the former constituent republics of the USSR into independent states and hence, also autonomous regional and international actors, bent on defining their own specific national interests and foreign policy priorities. The emergence of these new republics also changed the nature of […]
By its geographical nature, the South Caucasus is a transit region: a bridge connecting Central Asia with Europe, and the Middle East with Russia. Relatively small in territory and population, the region is surrounded by large countries – Iran, Turkey and Russia – and located between two seas. Geographically, it is meant to unite, not […]
The international security architecture is undergoing tremendous transformations. The relative decline of the US influence, rising China, more confident Russia, turmoil in the Middle East, rift in transatlantic relations and growing populism are the key patterns of current international relations. These developments are influencing virtually all regions of the world. Changes are not circumventing South […]
“I will finish you!” Giorgi Gakharia, the newly appointed Prime Minister of Georgia addressed the parliamentary opposition during his speech on September 6. This simple phrase at first glance describes the level of democracy in Georgia, a country which continues to be considered by the European Union as a success story and the front-runner of […]
South Caucasus is a part of the EU Eastern Partnership program. Launched in 2009, Program envisages fostering relations between the EU and the six former Soviet Union republics – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. The key goal of the program was the signature of Association Agreements with Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area […]
This article assesses the EU’s engagement policies by tracing the background of the EU’s external policy-making abilities, by outlining EU objectives relative to the South Caucasus and matching those objectives against major events of the last ten years concerning the region. Finally, certain indicators, elicited by EU and South Caucasus experts, are measured to ascertain […]
Just about a week ago Georgia looked like just another post-Soviet country with its democracy in decline as its ruling party had all branches of power and most of the media sources under tight control. The economy almost stagnated with only tourism industry showing signs of growth, mostly at the expense of the Russian tourists. […]
Georgia, a country once hailed as the regional champion of reforms, now looks rather like a just another post-Soviet republic. At the same time Georgia’s foreign policy has become more mature and balanced, taking into account recent shifts in balance of power, first of all the resurgent Russia. Domestic politics – business as usual In […]
Under some circumstances, the concept of neutrality could serve as a model for Central and Eastern European states. During the Cold War, neutral states managed to stay out of the spheres of influence created by the two military superpowers. There have been suggestions to create a “neutral belt” in the new Eastern Europe that has […]
The South Caucasus breaks down into three triangles, one inside the other. The largest, outer triangle includes three regional powers – Turkey, Iran and Russia. The middle triangle includes the three countries of the South Caucasus – Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia. The smallest, inner triangle consists of three unrecognized or partly recognized entities or de-facto […]
