ISP Working Paper | Political Crisis in Belarus: Sources, Evolution, and International Implications

In recent years, Belarus seemed to be coming in from the cold internationally. After about two decades as a European outcast, Minsk started to emerge as an important regional security actor and as a place that had a lot more to offer than had been thought previously. In an attempt to normalise relations with the […]

ISP Working Paper | Political Crisis in Belarus: Reasons and Perspectives

On August 9, 2020, presidential elections were held in Belarus. According to official data voiced by the Central Election Commission, Aliaksandr Lukashenka, the incumbent president, won with a sweeping 80.1% majority. Ensuing protests became unprecedented in the history of independent Belarus in terms of both the number of people involved and violence used against protesters. […]

ISP Working Paper | The Kremlin and the Protests in Belarus: What’s Russia’s Next Move?

Massive and persistent, protests in the Republic of Belarus have taken the world by surprise and suddenly brought the country to the centre of Europe’s attention. A rigged presidential election and a violent crackdown on the opposition unleashed deep-rooted popular discontent, which had grown mostly undetected over President Alexander Lukashenko’s 26 uninterrupted years in office. […]

ISP Working Paper | The COVID-19 Pandemic: Impact for the Post-Soviet Space and Russia’s Aspirations

The COVID-19 pandemic, which has become the largest global challenge of the current time, has had a significant impact on the post-Soviet countries. In order to understand the extent of its influence on socio-political and socio-economic processes in the CIS countries and in Georgia adequately it is necessary to estimate how the pandemic has changed […]

COVID-19 Forecast for the Post-Soviet Space

Data Source: https://github.com/datasets/covid-19 The forecast methodology is developed by the author. Any real-life exponential growth can be described by a logistic curve. The developed method is based on the time series. Based on the growth trajectory, it calculates the logistic growth rate or the steepness of the curve, which in other equal conditions does not […]

Belarus in 2020: Five key political trends

Belarus approaches 2020 with an array of foreign and domestic political challenges, the responses to which will determine the country’s future for many years to come. In this sense, the coming year can become a turning point in a number of dimensions, including the relations with Russia and the EU, the political climate in the […]

Belarus Muddling through Geopolitical Uncertainties

In two recent years leading Western media and think tanks have written about Belarus, perhaps, more than they did in the previous two decades. Most reports focus on Russian policies towards neighbours, and Belarus in particular (or what journalists and analysts presume those policies are), and Minsk’s actions in that context. Thus, in a way, […]

Die Lage in Osteuropa und der Schwarzmeerregion im Jahr 2019

Russland steht 2019 ganz im Zeichen des schrittweisen Transformationsprozesses des gesamten politischen Systems. Angesichts der Präsidentschafts- und Parlamentswahlen in der Ukraine werden die Versuche einer friedlichen Lösung des Konfliktes im Osten der Ukraine über das Jahr 2019 hinaus fortgesetzt werden, auch eine Konfliktintensivierung kann nicht ausgeschlossen werden. Eine nicht unbedeutende additive konflikteskalierende Rolle in der […]