ISP Working Paper | Current Trends in the Political and Security Dimension of the South Caucasus. A View from Iran

The cultural, ethnic, religious, linguistic, and geographical cohesion of the Caucasus with Iran is an obvious factor that engages Tehran in the issues of this region. Therefore, the Islamic Republic of Iran was one of the first countries that recognized the newly independent states of the Caucasus after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Among […]

ISP Working Paper | The July Escalation Along Armenia-Azerbaijan Border

The July escalation along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border has caught many by surprise. The clashes took place some 300 km away from the line of contact between Azerbaijan and the Nagorno Karabakh Republic and were the first major escalation after the April 2018 “Velvet Revolution” in Armenia. The situation along both the line of contact and […]

ISP Working Paper | The July 2020 Clashes on the Armenia-Azerbaijan Border and Implications for the Old Conflict

The South Caucasus is not only one of the most multi-ethnic regions on Europe’s periphery but also, and probably because of this, one of the most conflict-inflicted territories in the world. Not only did the disintegration of the Soviet Union allow the three countries of the region – Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia – to recover […]

ISP Working Paper | The COVID-19 Pandemic: Impact for the Post-Soviet Space and Russia’s Aspirations

The COVID-19 pandemic, which has become the largest global challenge of the current time, has had a significant impact on the post-Soviet countries. In order to understand the extent of its influence on socio-political and socio-economic processes in the CIS countries and in Georgia adequately it is necessary to estimate how the pandemic has changed […]

COVID-19 Forecast for the Post-Soviet Space

Data Source: https://github.com/datasets/covid-19 The forecast methodology is developed by the author. Any real-life exponential growth can be described by a logistic curve. The developed method is based on the time series. Based on the growth trajectory, it calculates the logistic growth rate or the steepness of the curve, which in other equal conditions does not […]

Georgia’s Hypothetical Neutrality. A Regional Perspective

By its geographical nature, the South Caucasus is a transit region: a bridge connecting Central Asia with Europe, and the Middle East with Russia. Relatively small in territory and population, the region is surrounded by large countries – Iran, Turkey and Russia – and located between two seas. Geographically, it is meant to unite, not […]

South Caucasus in 2020

The international security architecture is undergoing tremendous transformations. The relative decline of the US influence, rising China, more confident Russia, turmoil in the Middle East, rift in transatlantic relations and growing populism are the key patterns of current international relations. These developments are influencing virtually all regions of the world. Changes are not circumventing South […]

Armenia by the End of 2019: Domestic and Foreign Agenda

The “Velvet revolution” that took place in the spring of 2018 led to the breakdown of the entire domestic political status quo in Armenia. The regime of competitive authoritarianism, rooted in Armenia,[1] was wrecked and the political elite, who had been at the helm of the country for twenty years, was removed from power. This […]

Armenia–China: Strategic Partnership for Mutual Benefits

Armenia and China are both among the ancient civilizations of human history. They share millennia of mutual contacts via the ancient Silk Road. However, history is not the only thing which unites the two nations. Both Armenians and Chinese put enormous emphasis on protecting their national identities and traditions. Of course, it does not mean […]

Perspectives of EU – South Caucasus relations

South Caucasus is a part of the EU Eastern Partnership program. Launched in 2009, Program envisages fostering relations between the EU and the six former Soviet Union republics – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. The key goal of the program was the signature of Association Agreements with Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area […]

EU Engagement in the South Caucasus: A Brief Stock-taking

This article assesses the EU’s engagement policies by tracing the background of the EU’s external policy-making abilities, by outlining EU objectives relative to the South Caucasus and matching those objectives against major events of the last ten years concerning the region. Finally, certain indicators, elicited by EU and South Caucasus experts, are measured to ascertain […]

The South Caucasus and the phenomenon of frozen conflicts

The South Caucasus breaks down into three triangles, one inside the other. The largest, outer triangle includes three regional powers – Turkey, Iran and Russia. The middle triangle includes the three countries of the South Caucasus – Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia. The smallest, inner triangle consists of three unrecognized or partly recognized entities or de-facto […]

Die Lage in Osteuropa und der Schwarzmeerregion im Jahr 2019

Russland steht 2019 ganz im Zeichen des schrittweisen Transformationsprozesses des gesamten politischen Systems. Angesichts der Präsidentschafts- und Parlamentswahlen in der Ukraine werden die Versuche einer friedlichen Lösung des Konfliktes im Osten der Ukraine über das Jahr 2019 hinaus fortgesetzt werden, auch eine Konfliktintensivierung kann nicht ausgeschlossen werden. Eine nicht unbedeutende additive konflikteskalierende Rolle in der […]

The Karabakh conflict: stable instability

The April 2016 escalation, referred to by the press as the Four-Day War, significantly changed the situation around the Karabakh conflict. This said, two important reservations need to be made. First of all, the coinage is not entirely relevant because, arguably, the events of April 2016 were nothing like a full-scale war. For example, they […]