ISP Working Paper | The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict from Iran’s Perspective

During the past two decades, the ceasefire in Karabakh had been breached several times by the Armenian and Azerbaijani parties. The most significant cases of violation of truce are the relatively comprehensive military encounter in the course of the four days war of April 2016, the four days war of July 2020 and the latest […]

ISP Working Paper | The Nagorno Karabakh Conflict and the Crisis in Turkey’s Domestic Politics

In Turkey, the AKP-MHP (The Justice and Development Party – The Nationalist Movement Party) nationalist coalition is no longer able to solve problems inside and outside the country in usual ways. The South Caucasus has been added to the mechanism of conflicts in Syria, Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean. In view of the scale of […]

ISP Working Paper | New War in Nagorno Karabakh and the Role of Great Powers: What is Next?

On September 27, 2020, Azerbaijan launched a large-scale attack along the whole line of contact with the Nagorno Karabakh Republic. This was the third flare-up in Karabakh conflict in recent four years. In April 2016 Azerbaijan again launched an attack on Karabakh, however, hostilities were stopped after four days as a result of active Russian […]

ISP Working Paper | Evaluating the OSCE Minsk Group’s Mediation of the Armenia–Azerbaijan Conflict

This working paper aims to analyze the mediation activity of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group through the prisms of theoretical approaches to international mediation. After providing a historical background to the mediation work of the Minsk Group Co-Chairs and highlighting the stages of the mediation, the article will further […]

ISP Working Paper | The Nagorno-Karabakh Tension

Such a severe aggravation of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh has not been observed since 1994 the time when the conflicting parties reached an agreement on a ceasefire. By September 27, 2020, the situation in the military-political plane has reached its peak. On the morning of September 27, in response to another shelling of Azerbaijani positions […]

ISP Working Paper | The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: Escalating Violence and Security Risks

New military escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh has again drawn attention to the situation in the Caucasus region. The Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict is not a new phenomenon in international politics. Many of its elements, such as the positions of the opposing sides themselves, as well as approaches of actors engaged in the peace settlement process, are well known. […]

ISP Working Paper | Current Trends in the Political and Security Dimension of the South Caucasus. A View from Iran

The cultural, ethnic, religious, linguistic, and geographical cohesion of the Caucasus with Iran is an obvious factor that engages Tehran in the issues of this region. Therefore, the Islamic Republic of Iran was one of the first countries that recognized the newly independent states of the Caucasus after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Among […]

ISP Working Paper | The July Escalation Along Armenia-Azerbaijan Border

The July escalation along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border has caught many by surprise. The clashes took place some 300 km away from the line of contact between Azerbaijan and the Nagorno Karabakh Republic and were the first major escalation after the April 2018 “Velvet Revolution” in Armenia. The situation along both the line of contact and […]

ISP Working Paper | The July 2020 Clashes on the Armenia-Azerbaijan Border and Implications for the Old Conflict

The South Caucasus is not only one of the most multi-ethnic regions on Europe’s periphery but also, and probably because of this, one of the most conflict-inflicted territories in the world. Not only did the disintegration of the Soviet Union allow the three countries of the region – Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia – to recover […]

ISP Working Paper | The COVID-19 Pandemic: Impact for the Post-Soviet Space and Russia’s Aspirations

The COVID-19 pandemic, which has become the largest global challenge of the current time, has had a significant impact on the post-Soviet countries. In order to understand the extent of its influence on socio-political and socio-economic processes in the CIS countries and in Georgia adequately it is necessary to estimate how the pandemic has changed […]

COVID-19 Forecast for the Post-Soviet Space

Data Source: https://github.com/datasets/covid-19 The forecast methodology is developed by the author. Any real-life exponential growth can be described by a logistic curve. The developed method is based on the time series. Based on the growth trajectory, it calculates the logistic growth rate or the steepness of the curve, which in other equal conditions does not […]

Georgia’s Hypothetical Neutrality. A Regional Perspective

By its geographical nature, the South Caucasus is a transit region: a bridge connecting Central Asia with Europe, and the Middle East with Russia. Relatively small in territory and population, the region is surrounded by large countries – Iran, Turkey and Russia – and located between two seas. Geographically, it is meant to unite, not […]

South Caucasus in 2020

The international security architecture is undergoing tremendous transformations. The relative decline of the US influence, rising China, more confident Russia, turmoil in the Middle East, rift in transatlantic relations and growing populism are the key patterns of current international relations. These developments are influencing virtually all regions of the world. Changes are not circumventing South […]

Armenia by the End of 2019: Domestic and Foreign Agenda

The “Velvet revolution” that took place in the spring of 2018 led to the breakdown of the entire domestic political status quo in Armenia. The regime of competitive authoritarianism, rooted in Armenia,[1] was wrecked and the political elite, who had been at the helm of the country for twenty years, was removed from power. This […]

Armenia–China: Strategic Partnership for Mutual Benefits

Armenia and China are both among the ancient civilizations of human history. They share millennia of mutual contacts via the ancient Silk Road. However, history is not the only thing which unites the two nations. Both Armenians and Chinese put enormous emphasis on protecting their national identities and traditions. Of course, it does not mean […]