Post-Soviet Space 2020: Key Trends and Challenges

Due to the shifts within the global environment, including the come-back of the Middle East to the top agenda of great power politics alongside emergent controversies between major international players, the post-soviet space is down-grading in the hierarchy of political interests of non-regional players. As the global attention is mainly focused on other regions, the […]

Ukraine-2020: Little Can Be Said For Sure

The views expressed in the article are solely that of the author and may not represent that of MGIMO-University, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Russian government.   There are numerous uncertainties for the coming year. Will the local elections be held on time? Will the Minsk agreements still be relevant? Will the resolution […]

Ukrainian Political Trends in 2020

2020 is likely to become another challenging year for Ukraine. 2019, a politically turbulent year of two national elections is over; but the politics in the country is still highly unpredictable. State institutions remain weak. Radically new president and the parliament did not bring about significant changes in the ways politics operate. The rules of […]

Die Beziehungen Russlands zur EU 2020

Im Verhältnis EU-Russland wird die gegenwärtige Beziehungsdynamik sowie die 2014 eingeleitete strategische Entkoppelung‘ beibehalten. Im Sinne eines dynamischen Status quo wird die EU-Russland Beziehung einen hybriden, kooperativ-konfrontativen Charakter annehmen und zwischen pragmatischer Kooperation und hybrider Konfrontation oszillieren. In Russland stehen das Jahr 2020 innenpolitisch ganz im Zeichen tiefgreifender Transformation des politischen Systems, inklusive der Fortführung […]

Economic outlook for the Eurasian Economic Union until 2024

The views expressed in the article are solely that of the author and may not represent that of Skolkovo, the Higher School of Economics and IIASA.   In 2019 we celebrated the first five years of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). To which extent the Union was able to increase the welfare of its citizens […]

Chinas Belt and Road Initiative – Europas geopolitische Herausforderung des 21. Jahrhunderts

„Wir wollen die Seidenstraßeninitiative vorantreiben, so dass die Menschen auf der ganzen Welt davon profitieren […]. Wir wollen eine Straße des Friedens schaffen.“ So die Botschaft von Chinas Präsidenten Xi Jinping in seiner Eröffnungsrede anlässlich des „One Belt, One Road Gipfels“ am 14. Mai 2017 in Peking an anwesenden Vertreter aus 110 Ländern, darunter 28 […]

Belarus in 2020: Five key political trends

Belarus approaches 2020 with an array of foreign and domestic political challenges, the responses to which will determine the country’s future for many years to come. In this sense, the coming year can become a turning point in a number of dimensions, including the relations with Russia and the EU, the political climate in the […]

The Scenario for Possible Georgian Neutrality in Accordance with the Austrian Model

Georgia has sought ways to ensure its security and restore territorial integrity since early 90-ies. Integration with NATO has been viewed as one of the available ways to achieve this goal. There are other ways and options discussed like a bilateral military agreement with the US as the latter is seen as the only power […]

Neutrality for Georgia. A Possible View From Washington

For most of the history of independent Georgia, the view towards Washington has looked more or less the same. The US has been a strong supporter of Georgia and has been one of the most countries most interested in bringing Georgia into Euro-Atlantic organizations, or to phrase it another way, into the US sphere of […]

Neutrality for Georgia: Concepts and Application

Neutrality has been declared obsolete many times in its long and layered history. Yet a close companion to wars and conflicts throughout documented human history, and an inherently flexible concept, it has also made many comebacks in varying forms and contexts. Neutral states respond to critical moments in their environment by pursuing reversible, rather than […]

How Could the Status of Neutrality Affect the Economy of Georgia?

Over the past decades, Georgia has often been perceived as a success story. In many ways, this is true: Georgia has made impressive progress in implementing institutional reforms. In 2019, Georgia ranked 7th in the world, according to Ease of Doing Business and 16th in the Index of Economic Freedom. Institutional development is key to […]

Russia and Georgia: Seeking a New Agenda

The Soviet Union’s dissolution fundamentally altered the geopolitics of the South Caucasus, by turning the former constituent republics of the USSR into independent states and hence, also autonomous regional and international actors, bent on defining their own specific national interests and foreign policy priorities. The emergence of these new republics also changed the nature of […]

Terrorism: A Continuing Threat

None of the modern terrorist groups conform fully to the traditional model of terrorism. Accordingly, they challenge counterterrorism polices and strategies which have long been oriented towards targeting terrorist organizations and their leaders. Because of the power of the Internet, social media and other 21st century communications platforms, the threat is changing and evolving rapidly […]

Georgia’s Hypothetical Neutrality. A Regional Perspective

By its geographical nature, the South Caucasus is a transit region: a bridge connecting Central Asia with Europe, and the Middle East with Russia. Relatively small in territory and population, the region is surrounded by large countries – Iran, Turkey and Russia – and located between two seas. Geographically, it is meant to unite, not […]

South Caucasus in 2020

The international security architecture is undergoing tremendous transformations. The relative decline of the US influence, rising China, more confident Russia, turmoil in the Middle East, rift in transatlantic relations and growing populism are the key patterns of current international relations. These developments are influencing virtually all regions of the world. Changes are not circumventing South […]