ISP Working Paper | Syrian conflict: Complexities and Prospects Ahead

There is already nine years of the conflict in Syria left behind, and it is still far from its final settlement. Although the intensity and scale of military activities have significantly decreased, the overall situation in the country remains very unstable and is complicated by the whole set of factors: military, political, international, socio-economic. That […]

ISP Working Paper | Foreign Fighters in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War. Dimension and Complexity

The Second Karabakh War (September 27 – November 9, 2020) was the latest escalation of an unresolved conflict over the region, which is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but partially governed by the Republic of Artsakh, a breakaway state with an Armenian ethnic majority. As a result of the war, territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh including […]

ISP Working Paper | The Second Karabakh War, or the First Post-Post-Soviet War

The Second Karabakh War, sometimes called the six-week war, took the lives of thousands of Armenian and Azerbaijani soldiers, abruptly changed the status quo in the Karabakh conflict that had existed since the end of the First Karabakh War in 1994, and reformatted the geopolitical configuration of the South Caucasus. It is also likely to […]

The Biden Administration and Iran Nuclear Deal: More Constraints than Possibilities

Analysts are already predicting the steps of the new US administration led by Joe Biden. One of the most interesting areas where Joe Biden can act and emphasize the difference in approaches with the Trump administration is the so-called “Iran nuclear deal”. Nevertheless, many factors could undermine this yet to be approved decision. Bridging the […]

Will Russia-Turkey tensions undermine their cooperation in Syria and beyond?

On October 26 Russian jets attacked a training camp of a Syrian armed group called Faylaq al-Sham (FaS) in northern Idlib killing over 70 fighters and injuring a lot more. FaS is considered to be the strongest and the most influential group in the Syrian National Army (SNA) and enjoys Turkey’s support and patronage. Representatives […]

ISP Working Paper | The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict from Iran’s Perspective

During the past two decades, the ceasefire in Karabakh had been breached several times by the Armenian and Azerbaijani parties. The most significant cases of violation of truce are the relatively comprehensive military encounter in the course of the four days war of April 2016, the four days war of July 2020 and the latest […]

ISP Working Paper | Great Power Conflicts and the Global Economy

The economic impact of COVID-19-pandemic is serious. Nearly every major power has suffered a massive drop in gross domestic product. Overnight, all economic vulnerabilities of the most powerful states in the world were exposed. The election of Donald Trump marked the beginning of the trend aimed at reassessing the economic vulnerability of one’s own state […]

ISP Working Paper | The Nagorno Karabakh Conflict and the Crisis in Turkey’s Domestic Politics

In Turkey, the AKP-MHP (The Justice and Development Party – The Nationalist Movement Party) nationalist coalition is no longer able to solve problems inside and outside the country in usual ways. The South Caucasus has been added to the mechanism of conflicts in Syria, Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean. In view of the scale of […]

ISP Working Paper | New War in Nagorno Karabakh and the Role of Great Powers: What is Next?

On September 27, 2020, Azerbaijan launched a large-scale attack along the whole line of contact with the Nagorno Karabakh Republic. This was the third flare-up in Karabakh conflict in recent four years. In April 2016 Azerbaijan again launched an attack on Karabakh, however, hostilities were stopped after four days as a result of active Russian […]

ISP Working Paper | Evaluating the OSCE Minsk Group’s Mediation of the Armenia–Azerbaijan Conflict

This working paper aims to analyze the mediation activity of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group through the prisms of theoretical approaches to international mediation. After providing a historical background to the mediation work of the Minsk Group Co-Chairs and highlighting the stages of the mediation, the article will further […]

ISP Working Paper | The Nagorno-Karabakh Tension

Such a severe aggravation of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh has not been observed since 1994 the time when the conflicting parties reached an agreement on a ceasefire. By September 27, 2020, the situation in the military-political plane has reached its peak. On the morning of September 27, in response to another shelling of Azerbaijani positions […]

ISP Working Paper | The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: Escalating Violence and Security Risks

New military escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh has again drawn attention to the situation in the Caucasus region. The Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict is not a new phenomenon in international politics. Many of its elements, such as the positions of the opposing sides themselves, as well as approaches of actors engaged in the peace settlement process, are well known. […]

ISP Working Paper | What to expect from another “milestone” election in Georgia

In less than a month, parliamentary elections will be held in Georgia. After the volatile events of the last summer (the so-called Gavrilov Crisis – mass protests following the visit of the Russian parliamentary delegation and the crack-down on the rally), it was widely believed that the ruling party was doomed for a defeat. Thus, […]

Limits of Russian-Iranian Interaction in Syria

In June 2020 former US national security advisor John Bolton published a book where he said that Vladimir Putin told him that Moscow was not interested in Iran’s presence in Syria. Despite this allegation, Russia and Iran deny such state of affairs. Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif already visited Moscow in June and July for […]

ISP Working Paper | Political Crisis in Belarus: Sources, Evolution, and International Implications

In recent years, Belarus seemed to be coming in from the cold internationally. After about two decades as a European outcast, Minsk started to emerge as an important regional security actor and as a place that had a lot more to offer than had been thought previously. In an attempt to normalise relations with the […]