ISP Working Paper | Europe’s Role in the Corona and Post-Corona World

In order to understand how global political conflicts and social peace will look after the corona era, it is necessary to analyze how they are developing during the crisis itself. This working paper makes the argument that the existing tendencies will accelerate and endure after the crisis. The following four factors will be discussed here: […]

ISP Working Paper | The Future of the European Union in a Post-Pandemic World

In recent years the identity of the European Union has come to be inextricably linked with the logic of crisis. As opposed to other polities around the globe, the EU does not just face recurring crises but seems to exist in the very element of crisis. In a way, it welcomes crises. It has turned […]

ISP Working Paper | How COVID-19 Will Reinforce Trends Shaping the International Order

In just a few months, COVID-19 has turned our world upside down. The pandemic has claimed over 100,000 lives and untold economic damage. It is also affecting relations between states, in many cases, for the worse. These momentous events have led many to wonder what the pandemic means for the future of the international order. […]

ISP Working Paper | The Long March: Geopolitical Aspect of Transition to a New Global Order

In the past century, world order changes reflected the results of two world wars and the Cold War. The latter ushered in a period of Pax Americana – an unprecedented short era of one country’s – the United States of America’s – global dominance. This period featured a surge in globalization – a process of […]

ISP Working Paper | The Global Order After COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic is the most disruptive global event since the Great Depression and World War 2. At least 4.8 million people have been infected in less than six months; more than 300,000 have died, and many more deaths will occur even if effective vaccines or treatments are eventually developed. The economic costs are staggering: […]

ISP Working Paper | Indien im Spannungsfeld von (Neo)Realismus, Interdependenz und Chinas Belt and Road Initiative

Mit der Rückkehr der Volksrepublik China als eurasischer Macht auf die weltpolitische Bühne nach 100 Jahren der Depression und einer damit einhergehenden offensichtlichen Verlagerung des globalen geopolitischen Fokus vom atlantischen in den indopazifischen Raum, werden die Karten im Spiel um die globale machtpolitische Führung neu gemischt. Die durchaus stabile bipolare Ordnung des 20. Jahrhunderts ist […]

How to Build a (Slightly) Better World after the Pandemic

The coronavirus crisis has demonstrated the distance between the type of world order Americans and people around the globe might like to attain and the type of world order that they actually have. This is a common feature of great global crises—they illuminate the gap between what is desirable and what actually exists. The current […]

COVID-19 and the Future Global Order

How will the corona virus pandemic change the global order that developed under American leadership after 1945? There will be changes, but one must be wary of assuming that “big causes” always have big effects. For example in 1918, Spanish flu killed more people than did World War I, yet the lasting global effects on […]

The EU and the Eurasian Economic Union: Dealing with a Common Chinese Challenge

In 2015 the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) became the latest version of integration in the post-soviet space, bringing together Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan in a Union, taking the European Union as its model. However, five years later the EAEU is still suffering from a number of structural weaknesses, which have restrained the organisation […]

The Future of EU-Russia Relations

One of the fundamental questions of our times is why European Union (EU) – Russian relations have deteriorated so badly and, as a corollary of that, can relations be improved, and if so, how. These issues will shape the future of our continent, and therefore require serious and balanced analysis. Unfortunately, too often answers are […]

COVID-19 Forecast for the Post-Soviet Space

Data Source: https://github.com/datasets/covid-19 The forecast methodology is developed by the author. Any real-life exponential growth can be described by a logistic curve. The developed method is based on the time series. Based on the growth trajectory, it calculates the logistic growth rate or the steepness of the curve, which in other equal conditions does not […]

ISP Working Paper | Bulgaria – Outlook on Security Policy Development and National Expectations until 2025

“Always with Germany, never against Russia.” These words attributed to Tsar Boris III reflect the prevailing attitude in Bulgaria when it comes to foreign affairs.  Of course, these days it is the West, the EU and the US, rather Germany.  But the dictum has not lost its relevance. Bulgaria has been part of the Western […]

ISP Working Paper | Romania – Outlook on Security Policy Development and National Expectations until 2025

Romania is contemplating the evolution of the system of International Relations and global security from the point of view of a new European state, willing to protect the liberal democratic system, multilateralism in the international stage, and the rules-based world. On another point, Romania is supportive of the need to build at our direct Eastern […]

ISP Working Paper | Money Laundering in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Despite some moderate improvements in recent years, money laundering remains a major problem in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). Rampant corruption; almost constant political crisis; blocked decision-making process; complicated administrative structure; weak rule of law; and widespread use of cash make BiH fertile ground for a variety of money laundering practices. Being a microcosm of Balkan’s […]

ISP Working Paper | Serbia, Quo Vadis? Belgrade between EU Accession and Aligment with Russia

In October 2019, six countries of the Western Balkans were shocked to learn that French President Emmanuel Macron had vetoed the start of negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia on accession to the European Union (EU). Even before that, both Western Balkan societies and their ruling elites were under no illusion that EU membership was […]