Einträge von Alexey KHLEBNIKOV

ISP Working Paper | Syrian conflict: Complexities and Prospects Ahead

There is already nine years of the conflict in Syria left behind, and it is still far from its final settlement. Although the intensity and scale of military activities have significantly decreased, the overall situation in the country remains very unstable and is complicated by the whole set of factors: military, political, international, socio-economic. That […]

Will Russia-Turkey tensions undermine their cooperation in Syria and beyond?

On October 26 Russian jets attacked a training camp of a Syrian armed group called Faylaq al-Sham (FaS) in northern Idlib killing over 70 fighters and injuring a lot more. FaS is considered to be the strongest and the most influential group in the Syrian National Army (SNA) and enjoys Turkey’s support and patronage. Representatives […]

Limits of Russian-Iranian Interaction in Syria

In June 2020 former US national security advisor John Bolton published a book where he said that Vladimir Putin told him that Moscow was not interested in Iran’s presence in Syria. Despite this allegation, Russia and Iran deny such state of affairs. Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif already visited Moscow in June and July for […]

Deciphering another Russia-Turkey deal on Idlib

On March 5 presidents of Russia and Turkey met in Moscow where they managed to reach a new deal on Syrian Idlib. Situation in the province has been escalating for weeks and put into question Russia-Turkey cooperation on Syria. Although, after almost six-hours long negotiations Vladimir Putin and Tayyip Erdogan came to a compromise, the […]

Escalation in Idlib Highlights Existing Risks in Russia-Turkish Cooperation in Syria

Recent developments in Idlib put situation in Syria on escalatory trajectory which might potentially undermine Russia-Turkish relations and change entire conflict flow. While Erdogan threatens to launch a military operation against Syrian Arab Army (SAA) if it doesn’t stop offensive in Idlib, Russian and Turkish diplomats and military are struggling to find a new compromise […]

Is Astana format on the way to be reformatted?

Another round of Astana Syria talks was held at the beginning of August in Kazakh capital Nur-Sultan. This format built around Russia, Turkey and Iran was launched back in January 2017 at the initiative of the Russian president Vladimir Putin. It had several main goals: First and foremost was to bring armed opposition and the […]